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UZB Uzbekistan PFL · Maç ·

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score2–02.43 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır75%
Beraberlik17%
Deplasman kazanır8%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alt56% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varHayır79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Alt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
75% / 17% / 8%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Çifte Şans1X92.4%1.08
Üst 44% · Alt 56%Goals 2.5Alt56%1.79
Evet 21% · Hayır 79%Karşılıklı gol varHayır79%1.27
2.43 total expected goalsDoğru skor2–0
8.7 expected match cornersKornerlerAlt 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Fargona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomeTahminAdil oranReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Fargona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Beraberlik17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Fargona2.16

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 88.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üst 44% · Alt 56%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Deplasman share of expected goals 11.1%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitEvet 21% · Hayır 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Neftchi Fargona

1.80pts / match
Oynanan5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Puan9

SignalEv Sahibi unbeaten 5/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Oynanan5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Puan2

SignalEv Sahibi clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.16
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Fargona signalEv Sahibi unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalEv Sahibi clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Fargona kazanç 75%,Beraberlik 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon kazanç 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · 2.5 Üst 44% · Current selection Alt