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UZB Uzbekistan - PFL · Partita ·

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–02.43 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa75%
Pareggio17%
Vittoria ospite8%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto56% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
75% / 17% / 8%Esito partitaVittoria casa75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Doppia Chance1X92.4%1.08
Sopra 44% · Sotto 56%Goals 2.5Sotto56%1.79
Sì 21% · No 79%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo79%1.27
2.43 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–0
8.7 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Fargona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Fargona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Pareggio17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Fargona2.16

Casa share of expected goals 88.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 44% · Sotto 56%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Trasferta share of expected goals 11.1%

Projected score2–0BTTS split 21% · No 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Neftchi Fargona

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punti9

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Vinta probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.16
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Fargona signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Fargona vinta 75%,Pareggio 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon vinta 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Sopra 2.5 44% · Current selection Sotto