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UZB Üzbegisztán - PFL · Mérkőzés ·

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score2–02.41 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem75%
Döntetlen17%
Vendég győzelem8%
Full model forecastHazai győzelemTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHazai győzelem75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alatt57% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Alatt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
75% / 17% / 8%Mérkőzés eredményeHazai győzelem75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Dupla esély1X92.4%1.08
Felett 43% · Alatt 57%Goals 2.5Alatt57%1.75
Igen 21% · Nem 79%Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem79%1.27
2.41 total expected goalsPontos eredmény2–0
8.7 expected match cornersSzögletekAlatt 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Fargona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomeElőrejelzésValós oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Fargona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Döntetlen17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Fargona2.14

Hazai share of expected goals 88.8%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Felett 43% · Alatt 57%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Vendég share of expected goals 11.2%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitIgen 21% · Nem 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

Neftchi Fargona

1.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Pontok9

SignalHazai unbeaten 5/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Pontok2

SignalHazai clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Nyert probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.14
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Fargona signalHazai unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalHazai clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hazai győzelem · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Fargona nyer 75%,Döntetlen 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon nyer 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · 2.5 felett 43% · Current selection Alatt