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UZB Usbekistan - PFL · Kamp ·

Neftchi Farg'ona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–02.43 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr75%
Uafgjort17%
Udesejr8%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi Farg'onaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
75% / 17% / 8%KampresultatHjemmesejr75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Dobbeltchance1X92.4%1.08
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 21% · Nej 79%Begge hold scorerNej79%1.27
2.43 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–0
8.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Farg'ona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Farg'ona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Uafgjort17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Farg'ona2.16

Hjemme share of expected goals 88.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Ude share of expected goals 11.1%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitJa 21% · Nej 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Neftchi Farg'ona

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Point9

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Point2

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Vundet probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.16
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi Farg'onaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Farg'ona signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Farg'ona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Farg'ona vundet 75%,Uafgjort 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon vundet 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under