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EST Estland - Meistriliiga · Match ·

JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.72 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger57%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger17%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger57% selection probability
Projected score2–1JK Nomme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över51% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
57% / 26% / 17%MatchresultatHemmaseger57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Parnu JK Vaprus win (17.4%)Dubbelchans1X82.6%1.21
Över 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Över51%1.96
Ja 45% · Nej 55%Båda lagen gör målNej55%1.82
2.72 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
JK Nomme Kalju win57%1.75
Oavgjort26%3.85
Parnu JK Vaprus win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Nomme Kalju2.01

Hemma share of expected goals 73.9%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 51% · Under 49%

Parnu JK Vaprus0.71

Borta share of expected goals 26.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 45% · Nej 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

JK Nomme Kalju

2.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poäng11

SignalHemma unbeaten 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Parnu JK Vaprus

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
17%
11
Points from supplied form
7
2.01
Expected goals
0.71
JK Nomme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Nomme Kalju signalHemma unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Parnu JK Vaprus signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Nomme Kalju vunnen 57%,Oavgjort 26%,Parnu JK Vaprus vunnen 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Över 2.5 51% · Current selection Över