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JK Nõmme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Kodu form
Projected score2–12.72 expected goals
Võõras form
Koduvõit57%
Viik26%
Võõrsilvõit17%
Full model forecastKoduvõitTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callKoduvõit57% selection probability
Projected score2–1JK Nõmme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Üle51% for the selected side
Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Üle 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValikTõenäosusÕiglane koefitsient
57% / 26% / 17%Mängu tulemusKoduvõit57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Parnu JK Vaprus win (17.4%)Topeltvõimalus1X82.6%1.21
Üle 51% · Alla 49%Goals 2.5Üle51%1.96
Jah 45% · Ei 55%Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi55%1.82
2.72 total expected goalsTäpne skoor2–1
10.9 expected match cornersNurgalöögidÜle 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityÕiglane koefitsient
JK Nõmme Kalju win57%1.75
Viik26%3.85
Parnu JK Vaprus win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Nõmme Kalju2.01

Kodu share of expected goals 73.9%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üle 51% · Alla 49%

Parnu JK Vaprus0.71

Võõras share of expected goals 26.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJah 45% · Ei 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Kodu-context · form sequence

JK Nõmme Kalju

2.20pts / match
Mängitud5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punktid11

SignalKodu unbeaten 5/5

Võõras-context · form sequence

Parnu JK Vaprus

1.40pts / match
Mängitud5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punktid7

SignalKodu clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Võit probability excluding draw
17%
11
Points from supplied form
7
2.01
Expected goals
0.71
JK Nõmme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Nõmme Kalju signalKodu unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Parnu JK Vaprus signalKodu clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Viik probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

JK Nõmme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Koduvõit · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Nõmme Kalju võit 57%,Viik 26%,Parnu JK Vaprus võit 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Üle 2.5 51% · Current selection Üle