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JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.72 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier57%
Uavgjort26%
Borteseier17%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier57% selection probability
Projected score2–1JK Nomme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
57% / 26% / 17%KampresultatHjemmeseier57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Parnu JK Vaprus win (17.4%)Dobbel sjanse1X82.6%1.21
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 45% · Nei 55%Begge lag scorerNei55%1.82
2.72 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
JK Nomme Kalju win57%1.75
Uavgjort26%3.85
Parnu JK Vaprus win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Nomme Kalju2.01

Hjemme share of expected goals 73.9%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Parnu JK Vaprus0.71

Borte share of expected goals 26.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 45% · Nei 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

JK Nomme Kalju

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Parnu JK Vaprus

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
17%
11
Points from supplied form
7
2.01
Expected goals
0.71
JK Nomme KaljuParnu JK Vaprus
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Nomme Kalju signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Parnu JK Vaprus signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

JK Nomme Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Nomme Kalju vunnet 57%,Uavgjort 26%,Parnu JK Vaprus vunnet 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over