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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.92 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger38%
Oavgjort33%
Bortaseger29%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger38% selection probability
Projected score1–1Santa ClaraNacional
Expected goals1.92Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under70% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
38% / 33% / 29%MatchresultatHemmaseger38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Nacional win (29.3%)Dubbelchans1X70.7%1.41
Över 30% · Under 70%Goals 2.5Under70%1.43
Ja 38% · Nej 62%Båda lagen gör målNej62%1.61
1.92 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Santa Clara win38%2.63
Oavgjort33%3.03
Nacional win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santa Clara1.08

Hemma share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals1.92Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 30% · Under 70%

Nacional0.84

Borta share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 38% · Nej 62%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Santa Clara

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Nacional

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
29%
8
Points from supplied form
6
1.08
Expected goals
0.84
Santa ClaraNacional
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santa Clara signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Nacional signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Santa Clara vs Nacional FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santa Clara vunnen 38%,Oavgjort 33%,Nacional vunnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.92 · Över 2.5 30% · Current selection Under