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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.71 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger50%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger23%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Gil VicenteRio Ave
Expected goals2.71Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över51% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
50% / 26% / 23%MatchresultatHemmaseger50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Rio Ave win (23.2%)Dubbelchans1X76.8%1.30
Över 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Över51%1.96
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Båda lagen gör målNej53%1.89
2.71 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.8%Largest probability gapRio Ave winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gil Vicente win50%2.001.9049.3%+0.7 pp
Oavgjort26%3.853.5026.7%-0.7 pp
Rio Ave win23%4.353.9024%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gil Vicente1.91

Hemma share of expected goals 70.5%

Total expected goals2.71Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 51% · Under 49%

Rio Ave0.80

Borta share of expected goals 29.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Gil Vicente

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Rio Ave

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
23%
7
Points from supplied form
5
1.91
Expected goals
0.80
Gil VicenteRio Ave
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gil Vicente signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rio Ave signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gil Vicente vunnen 50%,Oavgjort 26%,Rio Ave vunnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.71 · Över 2.5 51% · Current selection Över