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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–11.92 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa50%
Empate29%
Vitória visitante21%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa50% selection probability
Projected score1–1Santa ClaraNacional
Expected goals1.92Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo70% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
50% / 29% / 21%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Nacional win (21.3%)Dupla Chance1X78.7%1.27
Acima 30% · Abaixo 70%Goals 2.5Abaixo70%1.43
Sim 38% · Não 62%Ambas as equipes marcamNão62%1.61
1.92 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–1
9.9 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.2%Largest probability gapSanta Clara winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Santa Clara win50%2.001.8351%-1.0 pp
Empate29%3.453.3028.3%+0.7 pp
Nacional win21%4.764.5020.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santa Clara1.08

Mandante share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals1.92Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Acima 30% · Abaixo 70%

Nacional0.84

Visitante share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitSim 38% · Não 62%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Santa Clara

1.60pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Pontos8

SignalMandante unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Nacional

1.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Pontos9

SignalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
21%
8
Points from supplied form
9
1.08
Expected goals
0.84
Santa ClaraNacional
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santa Clara signalMandante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Nacional signalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Santa Clara vs Nacional FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 1–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santa Clara ganhou 50%,Empate 29%,Nacional ganhou 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.92 · Acima 2.5 30% · Current selection Abaixo