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BRA Brazil Serie C · Матч ·

Итабаяна vs Caxias

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–11.28 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев36%
Ничья32%
Победа гостей33%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев36% selection probability
Projected score1–1ИтабаянаCaxias
Expected goals1.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше86% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет78% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
36% / 32% / 33%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31.9%)Двойной шанс1268.1%1.47
Больше 14% · Меньше 86%Goals 2.5Меньше86%1.16
Да 22% · Нет 78%Обе забьютНет78%1.28
1.28 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
10.3 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.9 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Итабаяна win36%2.782.5035.8%+0.2 pp
Ничья32%3.132.8831.1%+0.9 pp
Caxias win33%3.032.7033.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Итабаяна0.70

Хозяева share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals1.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 14% · Меньше 86%

Caxias0.58

Гости share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 22% · Нет 78%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Итабаяна

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Caxias

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Баллы6

SignalХозяева matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
0.70
Expected goals
0.58
ИтабаянаCaxias
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Итабаяна signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caxias signalХозяева matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Итабаяна vs Caxias FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Итабаяна выигрыш 36%,Ничья 32%,Caxias выигрыш 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.28 · ТБ 2.5 14% · Current selection Меньше