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BRA Brazil Serie C · Мач ·

Итабаяна vs Caxias

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score1–11.27 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина36%
Равен32%
Победа за госта32%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина36% selection probability
Projected score1–1ИтабаянаCaxias
Expected goals1.27Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под86% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе78% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Над 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
36% / 32% / 32%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31.9%)Двоен шанс1268.1%1.47
Над 14% · Под 86%Goals 2.5Под86%1.16
Да 22% · Не 78%И двата отбора да отбележатНе78%1.28
1.27 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
10.3 expected match cornersКорнериНад 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapCaxias winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Итабаяна win36%2.782.5035.8%+0.2 pp
Равен32%3.132.8831.1%+0.9 pp
Caxias win32%3.132.7033.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Итабаяна0.70

Домакин share of expected goals 55.1%

Total expected goals1.27Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 14% · Под 86%

Caxias0.57

Гост share of expected goals 44.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 22% · Не 78%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Итабаяна

2.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Точки10

SignalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Caxias

1.20pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Точки6

SignalДомакин matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
32%
10
Points from supplied form
6
0.70
Expected goals
0.57
ИтабаянаCaxias
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Итабаяна signalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caxias signalДомакин matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Итабаяна vs Caxias FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Итабаяна печеливш 36%,Равен 32%,Caxias печеливш 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.27 · Над 2.5 14% · Current selection Под