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BRA Brazil Serie C · Zápas ·

Itabaiana vs Caxias

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domáci form
Projected score1–11.28 expected goals
Hostia form
Výhra domácich36%
Remíza32%
Výhra hostí33%
Full model forecastVýhra domácichTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácich36% selection probability
Projected score1–1ItabaianaCaxias
Expected goals1.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menej86% for the selected side
Oba tímy skórujúNie78% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Viac 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýberPravdepodobnosťFérový kurz
36% / 32% / 33%Výsledok zápasuVýhra domácich36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31.9%)Dvojitá šanca1268.1%1.47
Viac 14% · Menej 86%Goals 2.5Menej86%1.16
Áno 22% · Nie 78%Oba tímy skórujúNie78%1.28
1.28 total expected goalsPresné skóre1–1
10.3 expected match cornersRohyViac 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.9 pp
OutcomePredpoveďFérový kurzReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Itabaiana win36%2.782.5035.8%+0.2 pp
Remíza32%3.132.8831.1%+0.9 pp
Caxias win33%3.032.7033.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Itabaiana0.70

Domáci share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals1.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Viac 14% · Menej 86%

Caxias0.58

Hostia share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitÁno 22% · Nie 78%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domáci-context · form sequence

Itabaiana

2.00pts / match
Odohrané5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Body10

SignalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

Hostia-context · form sequence

Caxias

1.20pts / match
Odohrané5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Body6

SignalDomáci matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Výhra probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
0.70
Expected goals
0.58
ItabaianaCaxias
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Itabaiana signalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caxias signalDomáci matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Itabaiana vs Caxias FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácich · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Itabaiana výhra 36%,Remíza 32%,Caxias výhra 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.28 · Viac 2.5 14% · Current selection Menej