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BRA Brazil Serie C · Maç ·

Itabaiana vs Caxias

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score1–11.28 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır36%
Beraberlik32%
Deplasman kazanır33%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır36% selection probability
Projected score1–1ItabaianaCaxias
Expected goals1.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Alt86% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varHayır78% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Üst 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
36% / 32% / 33%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31.9%)Çifte Şans1268.1%1.47
Üst 14% · Alt 86%Goals 2.5Alt86%1.16
Evet 22% · Hayır 78%Karşılıklı gol varHayır78%1.28
1.28 total expected goalsDoğru skor1–1
10.3 expected match cornersKornerlerÜst 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.9 pp
OutcomeTahminAdil oranReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Itabaiana win36%2.782.5035.8%+0.2 pp
Beraberlik32%3.132.8831.1%+0.9 pp
Caxias win33%3.032.7033.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Itabaiana0.70

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals1.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Üst 14% · Alt 86%

Caxias0.58

Deplasman share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitEvet 22% · Hayır 78%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Itabaiana

2.00pts / match
Oynanan5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puan10

SignalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Caxias

1.20pts / match
Oynanan5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puan6

SignalEv Sahibi matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
0.70
Expected goals
0.58
ItabaianaCaxias
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Itabaiana signalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caxias signalEv Sahibi matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Itabaiana vs Caxias FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Itabaiana kazanç 36%,Beraberlik 32%,Caxias kazanç 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.28 · 2.5 Üst 14% · Current selection Alt