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ITA Италия - Серия А · Round 1 ·

Рома vs Fiorentina

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев57%
Ничья24%
Победа гостей19%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев57% selection probability
Projected score2–1РомаFiorentina
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше54% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
57% / 24% / 19%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fiorentina win (18.6%)Двойной шанс1X81.4%1.23
Больше 46% · Меньше 54%Goals 2.5Меньше54%1.85
Да 44% · Нет 56%Обе забьютНет56%1.79
2.50 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
8.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapРома winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Рома win57%1.751.6756.7%+0.3 pp
Ничья24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp
Fiorentina win19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Рома1.76

Хозяева share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 46% · Меньше 54%

Fiorentina0.74

Гости share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 44% · Нет 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Рома

3.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Баллы15

SignalХозяева unbeaten 5/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Fiorentina

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Баллы6

SignalХозяева clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
6
1.76
Expected goals
0.74
РомаFiorentina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Рома signalХозяева unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fiorentina signalХозяева clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Рома vs Fiorentina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Рома выигрыш 57%,Ничья 24%,Fiorentina выигрыш 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · ТБ 2.5 46% · Current selection Меньше