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ITA Italien - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Roma vs Fiorentina

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg57%
Unentschieden24%
Auswärtssieg19%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg57% selection probability
Projected score2–1RomaFiorentina
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter54% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
57% / 24% / 19%SpielergebnisHeimsieg57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fiorentina win (18.6%)Doppelte Chance1X81.4%1.23
Über 46% · Unter 54%Goals 2.5Unter54%1.85
Ja 44% · Nein 56%Beide Teams treffenNein56%1.79
2.50 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
8.7 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapRoma winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Roma win57%1.751.6756.7%+0.3 pp
Unentschieden24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp
Fiorentina win19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Roma1.76

Heim share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 46% · Unter 54%

Fiorentina0.74

Auswärts share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nein 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Roma

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Fiorentina

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkte6

SignalHeim clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
6
1.76
Expected goals
0.74
RomaFiorentina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Roma signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fiorentina signalHeim clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Roma vs Fiorentina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Roma Gewinn 57%,Unentschieden 24%,Fiorentina Gewinn 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Über 2.5 46% · Current selection Unter