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ITA Włochy - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Roma vs Fiorentina

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy57%
Remis24%
Wygrana gości19%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy57% selection probability
Projected score2–1RomaFiorentina
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Poniżej54% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
57% / 24% / 19%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fiorentina win (18.6%)Podwójna szansa1X81.4%1.23
Powyżej 46% · Poniżej 54%Goals 2.5Poniżej54%1.85
Tak 44% · Nie 56%Obie drużyny strzeląNie56%1.79
2.50 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
8.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapRoma winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Roma win57%1.751.6756.7%+0.3 pp
Remis24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp
Fiorentina win19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Roma1.76

Gospodarze share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 46% · Poniżej 54%

Fiorentina0.74

Goście share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 44% · Nie 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Roma

3.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkty15

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Fiorentina

1.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkty6

SignalGospodarze clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
6
1.76
Expected goals
0.74
RomaFiorentina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Roma signalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fiorentina signalGospodarze clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Roma vs Fiorentina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Roma wygrana 57%,Remis 24%,Fiorentina wygrana 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Powyżej 2.5 46% · Current selection Poniżej