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ITA Italia - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Roma vs Fiorentina

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde57%
Egal24%
Victorie oaspeți19%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde57% selection probability
Projected score2–1RomaFiorentina
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
57% / 24% / 19%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fiorentina win (18.6%)Șansă dublă1X81.4%1.23
Peste 46% · Sub 54%Goals 2.5Sub54%1.85
Da 44% · Nu 56%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56%1.79
2.50 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
8.7 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapRoma winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Roma win57%1.751.6756.7%+0.3 pp
Egal24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp
Fiorentina win19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Roma1.76

Gazde share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 46% · Sub 54%

Fiorentina0.74

Oaspeți share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 44% · Nu 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Roma

3.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puncte15

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Fiorentina

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puncte6

SignalGazde clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Câștig probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
6
1.76
Expected goals
0.74
RomaFiorentina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Roma signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fiorentina signalGazde clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Roma vs Fiorentina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Roma câștig 57%,Egal 24%,Fiorentina câștig 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Peste 2.5 46% · Current selection Sub