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ITA Italia - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Roma vs Fiorentina

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local57%
Empate24%
Victoria visitante19%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local57% selection probability
Projected score2–1RomaFiorentina
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de54% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
57% / 24% / 19%Resultado del partidoVictoria local57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fiorentina win (18.6%)Doble Oportunidad1X81.4%1.23
Más de 46% · Menos de 54%Goals 2.5Menos de54%1.85
Sí 44% · No 56%Ambos equipos marcanNo56%1.79
2.50 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
8.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapRoma winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Roma win57%1.751.6756.7%+0.3 pp
Empate24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp
Fiorentina win19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Roma1.76

Local share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 46% · Menos de 54%

Fiorentina0.74

Visitante share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 44% · No 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Roma

3.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puntos15

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Fiorentina

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalLocal clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Ganado probability excluding draw
19%
15
Points from supplied form
6
1.76
Expected goals
0.74
RomaFiorentina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Roma signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fiorentina signalLocal clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Roma vs Fiorentina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Roma ganada 57%,Empate 24%,Fiorentina ganada 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Más de 2.5 46% · Current selection Menos de