Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
43% / 29% / 28%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela Amadora win (28%)Dubbele Kans1X72%1.39
Boven 47% · Onder 53%Goals 2.5Onder53%1.89
Ja 51% · Nee 49%Beide teams scorenJa51%1.96
2.54 total expected goalsExacte score2–1——
9.8 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Nacional win43%2.33
Gelijkspel29%3.45
Estrela Amadora win28%3.57
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Thuis share of expected goals 59.4%
Total expected goals2.54Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Boven 47% · Onder 53%
Uit share of expected goals 40.6%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nee 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Thuis-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchNacional
LWDLW
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7
SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5
Uit-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchEstrela Amadora
DDWDD
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn4Losses0Punten7
SignalThuis clean sheets: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
43%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
28%7
Points from supplied form
71.51
Expected goals
1.03NacionalEstrela Amadora
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Nacional vs Estrela Amadora FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Nacional gewonnen 43%，Gelijkspel 29%，Estrela Amadora gewonnen 28%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.54 · Boven 2.5 47% · Current selection Onder。