Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
43% / 29% / 28%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela Amadora win (28%)Double chance1X72%1.39
Plus de 47% · Moins de 53%Goals 2.5Moins de53%1.89
Oui 51% · Non 49%Les deux équipes marquentOui51%1.96
2.54 total expected goalsScore exact2–1——
9.8 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Nacional win43%2.33
Nul29%3.45
Estrela Amadora win28%3.57
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Domicile share of expected goals 59.4%
Total expected goals2.54Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Plus de 47% · Moins de 53%
Extérieur share of expected goals 40.6%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 51% · Non 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Domicile-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchNacional
LWDLW
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5
Extérieur-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchEstrela Amadora
DDWDD
Joués5Wins1Drawn4Losses0Points7
SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
43%
Gagné probability excluding draw
28%7
Points from supplied form
71.51
Expected goals
1.03NacionalEstrela Amadora
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Nacional vs Estrela Amadora FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Nacional victoire 43%，Nul 29%，Estrela Amadora victoire 28%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.54 · Plus de 2.5 47% · Current selection Moins de。