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POL Polen - I Liga · Wedstrijd ·

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.24 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst51%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst24%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Arka GdyniaPolonia Bytom
Expected goals3.24Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven63% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
51% / 26% / 24%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Polonia Bytom win (23.6%)Dubbele Kans1X76.4%1.31
Boven 63% · Onder 37%Goals 2.5Boven63%1.59
Ja 59% · Nee 41%Beide teams scorenJa59%1.69
3.24 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.7 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.0%Largest probability gapArka Gdynia winDifference+1.4 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Arka Gdynia win51%1.961.8049.6%+1.4 pp
Gelijkspel26%3.853.4026.3%-0.3 pp
Polonia Bytom win24%4.173.7024.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arka Gdynia2.16

Thuis share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals3.24Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 63% · Onder 37%

Polonia Bytom1.08

Uit share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 59% · Nee 41%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Arka Gdynia

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
24%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.16
Expected goals
1.08
Arka GdyniaPolonia Bytom
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arka Gdynia signalThuis won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Polonia Bytom signalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arka Gdynia gewonnen 51%,Gelijkspel 26%,Polonia Bytom gewonnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Boven 2.5 63% · Current selection Boven