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POL Polen - Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.94 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst46%
Gelijkspel27%
Uitwinst27%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Expected goals2.94Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven56% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
46% / 27% / 27%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Motor Lublin win (26.8%)Dubbele Kans1X73.2%1.37
Boven 56% · Onder 44%Goals 2.5Boven56%1.79
Ja 57% · Nee 43%Beide teams scorenJa57%1.75
2.94 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Pogon Szczecin win46%2.17
Gelijkspel27%3.70
Motor Lublin win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Pogon Szczecin1.80

Thuis share of expected goals 61.2%

Total expected goals2.94Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 56% · Onder 44%

Motor Lublin1.14

Uit share of expected goals 38.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nee 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Pogon Szczecin

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis failed to score: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Motor Lublin

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalUit matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
27%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.80
Expected goals
1.14
Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Pogon Szczecin signalThuis failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Motor Lublin signalUit matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Pogon Szczecin gewonnen 46%,Gelijkspel 27%,Motor Lublin gewonnen 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.94 · Boven 2.5 56% · Current selection Boven