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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.94 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa46%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite27%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Expected goals2.94Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra56% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
46% / 27% / 27%Esito partitaVittoria casa46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Motor Lublin win (26.8%)Doppia Chance1X73.2%1.37
Sopra 56% · Sotto 44%Goals 2.5Sopra56%1.79
Sì 57% · No 43%Entrambe le squadre segnano57%1.75
2.94 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Pogon Szczecin win46%2.17
Pareggio27%3.70
Motor Lublin win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Pogon Szczecin1.80

Casa share of expected goals 61.2%

Total expected goals2.94Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 56% · Sotto 44%

Motor Lublin1.14

Trasferta share of expected goals 38.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Pogon Szczecin

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa failed to score: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Motor Lublin

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Vinta probability excluding draw
27%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.80
Expected goals
1.14
Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Pogon Szczecin signalCasa failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Motor Lublin signalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Pogon Szczecin vinta 46%,Pareggio 27%,Motor Lublin vinta 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.94 · Sopra 2.5 56% · Current selection Sopra