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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.94 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr46%
Uafgjort27%
Udesejr27%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Expected goals2.94Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over56% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
46% / 27% / 27%KampresultatHjemmesejr46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Motor Lublin win (26.8%)Dobbeltchance1X73.2%1.37
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Begge hold scorerJa57%1.75
2.94 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Pogon Szczecin win46%2.17
Uafgjort27%3.70
Motor Lublin win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Pogon Szczecin1.80

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.2%

Total expected goals2.94Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%

Motor Lublin1.14

Ude share of expected goals 38.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Pogon Szczecin

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Motor Lublin

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Vundet probability excluding draw
27%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.80
Expected goals
1.14
Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Pogon Szczecin signalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Motor Lublin signalUde matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Pogon Szczecin vundet 46%,Uafgjort 27%,Motor Lublin vundet 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.94 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over