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LTU Lithuania 1 Lyga · Fixture ·

FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score3–03.30 expected goals
Away form
Home win79%
Draw12%
Away win9%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 79% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win79% selection probability
Projected score3–0FK MinijaFK Kauno Zalgiris II
Expected goals3.30Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over64% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
79% / 12% / 9%Match resultHome win79%1.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Kauno Zalgiris II win (9%)Double chance1X91%1.10
Over 64% · Under 36%Goals 2.5Over64%1.56
Yes 36% · No 64%Both teams scoreNo64%1.56
3.30 total expected goalsCorrect score3–0
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapFK Minija winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Minija win79%1.271.1878%+1.0 pp
Draw12%8.337.5012.3%-0.3 pp
FK Kauno Zalgiris II win9%11.119.509.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Minija2.82

Home share of expected goals 85.5%

Total expected goals3.30Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 64% · Under 36%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.48

Away share of expected goals 14.5%

Projected score3–0BTTS splitYes 36% · No 64%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FK Minija

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
79%
Win probability excluding draw
9%
12
Points from supplied form
6
2.82
Expected goals
0.48
FK MinijaFK Kauno Zalgiris II
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Minija signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Kauno Zalgiris II signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk21% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 12%.

Match questions

FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 3–0 · 79% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Minija win 79%,Draw 12%,FK Kauno Zalgiris II win 9%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.30 · Over 2.5 64% · Current selection Over