Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
62% / 22% / 17%Match resultHome win62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Zurich win (16.6%)Double chance1X83.4%1.20
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.53 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapLugano winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lugano win62%1.611.5361.3%+0.7 pp
Draw22%4.554.3321.7%+0.3 pp
FC Zurich win17%5.885.5017.1%-0.1 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 73.9%
Total expected goals2.53Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%
Away share of expected goals 26.1%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchLugano
WWLWW
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.80pts / matchFC Zurich
WLLWW
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
62%
Win probability excluding draw
17%12
Points from supplied form
91.87
Expected goals
0.66LuganoFC Zurich
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.
Match questions
Lugano vs FC Zurich FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 62% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Lugano win 62%，Draw 22%，FC Zurich win 17%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.53 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under。