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ITA Italia - Serie A · Partita ·

Atalanta vs Bologna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio30%
Vittoria ospite27%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score1–1AtalantaBologna
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto58% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 30% / 27%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Bologna win (27%)Doppia Chance1X73%1.37
Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%Goals 2.5Sotto58%1.72
Sì 46% · No 54%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54%1.85
2.35 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Atalanta win43%2.33
Pareggio30%3.33
Bologna win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.42

Casa share of expected goals 60.4%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%

Bologna0.93

Trasferta share of expected goals 39.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punti8

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Bologna

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
27%
8
Points from supplied form
5
1.42
Expected goals
0.93
AtalantaBologna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Bologna signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Bologna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta vinta 43%,Pareggio 30%,Bologna vinta 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Sopra 2.5 42% · Current selection Sotto