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ITA Italien - Serie A · Spiel ·

Atalanta vs Bologna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg43%
Unentschieden30%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg43% selection probability
Projected score1–1AtalantaBologna
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter58% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
43% / 30% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Bologna win (27%)Doppelte Chance1X73%1.37
Über 42% · Unter 58%Goals 2.5Unter58%1.72
Ja 46% · Nein 54%Beide Teams treffenNein54%1.85
2.35 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
8.9 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Atalanta win43%2.33
Unentschieden30%3.33
Bologna win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.42

Heim share of expected goals 60.4%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 42% · Unter 58%

Bologna0.93

Auswärts share of expected goals 39.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nein 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Bologna

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
8
Points from supplied form
5
1.42
Expected goals
0.93
AtalantaBologna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Bologna signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Bologna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta Gewinn 43%,Unentschieden 30%,Bologna Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Über 2.5 42% · Current selection Unter