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ITA Italia - Serie A · Partita ·

Napoli vs Como

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.28 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa38%
Pareggio30%
Vittoria ospite32%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa38% selection probability
Projected score1–1NapoliComo
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto60% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
38% / 30% / 32%Esito partitaVittoria casa38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.7%)Doppia Chance1270.3%1.42
Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%Goals 2.5Sotto60%1.67
Sì 46% · No 54%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54%1.85
2.28 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.4%Largest probability gapNapoli winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Napoli win38%2.632.4538.7%-0.7 pp
Pareggio30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Como win32%3.133.0031.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Napoli1.04

Casa share of expected goals 45.6%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%

Como1.24

Trasferta share of expected goals 54.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 46% · No 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Napoli

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Como

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Vinta probability excluding draw
32%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.04
Expected goals
1.24
NapoliComo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Napoli signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Como signalCasa clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Napoli vs Como FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Napoli vinta 38%,Pareggio 30%,Como vinta 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Sopra 2.5 40% · Current selection Sotto