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ITA Itália - Serie A · Partida ·

Nápoles vs Como

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–12.28 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa38%
Empate30%
Vitória visitante32%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa38% selection probability
Projected score1–1NápolesComo
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo60% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
38% / 30% / 32%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.7%)Dupla Chance1270.3%1.42
Acima 40% · Abaixo 60%Goals 2.5Abaixo60%1.67
Sim 46% · Não 54%Ambas as equipes marcamNão54%1.85
2.28 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–1
8.3 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.4%Largest probability gapNápoles winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Nápoles win38%2.632.4538.7%-0.7 pp
Empate30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Como win32%3.133.0031.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nápoles1.04

Mandante share of expected goals 45.6%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Acima 40% · Abaixo 60%

Como1.24

Visitante share of expected goals 54.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitSim 46% · Não 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Nápoles

2.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Pontos10

SignalMandante unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Como

2.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Pontos11

SignalMandante clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
32%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.04
Expected goals
1.24
NápolesComo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nápoles signalMandante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Como signalMandante clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Nápoles vs Como FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nápoles ganhou 38%,Empate 30%,Como ganhou 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Acima 2.5 40% · Current selection Abaixo