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ITA Italien - Serie A · Match ·

Napoli vs Como

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.28 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger38%
Oavgjort30%
Bortaseger32%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger38% selection probability
Projected score1–1NapoliComo
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under60% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
38% / 30% / 32%MatchresultatHemmaseger38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.7%)Dubbelchans1270.3%1.42
Över 40% · Under 60%Goals 2.5Under60%1.67
Ja 46% · Nej 54%Båda lagen gör målNej54%1.85
2.28 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.3 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.4%Largest probability gapNapoli winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Napoli win38%2.632.4538.7%-0.7 pp
Oavgjort30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Como win32%3.133.0031.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Napoli1.04

Hemma share of expected goals 45.6%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 40% · Under 60%

Como1.24

Borta share of expected goals 54.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nej 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Napoli

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Como

2.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poäng11

SignalHemma clean sheets: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
32%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.04
Expected goals
1.24
NapoliComo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Napoli signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Como signalHemma clean sheets: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Napoli vs Como FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Napoli vunnen 38%,Oavgjort 30%,Como vunnen 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Över 2.5 40% · Current selection Under