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HRV Croazia - HNL · Round 2 ·

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.81 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa37%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite35%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa37% selection probability
Projected score1–2Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Expected goals2.81Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra53% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
37% / 28% / 35%Esito partitaVittoria casa37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.9%)Doppia Chance1272.1%1.39
Sopra 53% · Sotto 47%Goals 2.5Sopra53%1.89
Sì 57% · No 43%Entrambe le squadre segnano57%1.75
2.81 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.6%Largest probability gapNK Varazdin winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Slaven Belupo win37%2.702.4537.2%-0.2 pp
Pareggio28%3.573.2528.1%-0.1 pp
NK Varazdin win35%2.862.6334.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slaven Belupo1.28

Casa share of expected goals 45.6%

Total expected goals2.81Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 53% · Sotto 47%

NK Varazdin1.53

Trasferta share of expected goals 54.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Slaven Belupo

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

NK Varazdin

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Vinta probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
12
1.28
Expected goals
1.53
Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slaven Belupo signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Varazdin signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–2 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slaven Belupo vinta 37%,Pareggio 28%,NK Varazdin vinta 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.81 · Sopra 2.5 53% · Current selection Sopra