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LTU Lithuania A Lyga · Final ·

FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann

Prediction review

Home form
Final score2–0Forecast 2–1
Away form
Home win59%
Draw22%
Away win19%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 59% selection probability
Prediction Won
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win59% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Kauno ZalgirisFC Hegelmann
Expected goals3.23Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over62% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
59% / 22% / 19%Match resultHome win59%1.69
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Hegelmann win (18.7%)Double chance1X81.3%1.23
Over 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Over62%1.61
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
3.23 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.1%Largest probability gapFK Kauno Zalgiris winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Kauno Zalgiris win59%1.691.5758.4%+0.6 pp
Draw22%4.554.1022.3%-0.3 pp
FC Hegelmann win19%5.264.7519.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Kauno Zalgiris2.34

Home share of expected goals 72.4%

Total expected goals3.23Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 62% · Under 38%

FC Hegelmann0.89

Away share of expected goals 27.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FK Kauno Zalgiris

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

FC Hegelmann

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
59%
Win probability excluding draw
19%
10
Points from supplied form
3
2.34
Expected goals
0.89
FK Kauno ZalgirisFC Hegelmann
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Kauno Zalgiris signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Hegelmann signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk41% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 59% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Kauno Zalgiris win 59%,Draw 22%,FC Hegelmann win 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.23 · Over 2.5 62% · Current selection Over