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POL Pologne - I Liga · Match ·

Polonia Varsovie vs Lechia Gdansk

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.45 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile63%
Nul21%
Victoire à l’extérieur16%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 63% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile63% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia VarsovieLechia Gdansk
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de56% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon64% for the selected side
Expected corners11.7Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
63% / 21% / 16%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile63%1.59
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lechia Gdansk win (16.3%)Double chance1X83.7%1.19
Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%Goals 2.5Moins de56%1.79
Oui 36% · Non 64%Les deux équipes marquentNon64%1.56
2.45 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
11.7 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapLechia Gdansk winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Varsovie win63%1.591.4562.1%+0.9 pp
Nul21%4.764.3320.8%+0.2 pp
Lechia Gdansk win16%6.255.2517.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Varsovie1.92

Domicile share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%

Lechia Gdansk0.53

Extérieur share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 36% · Non 64%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Polonia Varsovie

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Lechia Gdansk

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
63%
Gagné probability excluding draw
16%
10
Points from supplied form
4
1.92
Expected goals
0.53
Polonia VarsovieLechia Gdansk
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Varsovie signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lechia Gdansk signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk37% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Polonia Varsovie vs Lechia Gdansk FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 63% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Varsovie victoire 63%,Nul 21%,Lechia Gdansk victoire 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Plus de 2.5 44% · Current selection Moins de