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POL Polen - 1. Liga · Spiel ·

Polonia Warschau vs Lechia Danzig

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.45 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg63%
Unentschieden21%
Auswärtssieg16%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 63% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg63% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia WarschauLechia Danzig
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter56% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein64% for the selected side
Expected corners11.7Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
63% / 21% / 16%SpielergebnisHeimsieg63%1.59
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lechia Danzig win (16.3%)Doppelte Chance1X83.7%1.19
Über 44% · Unter 56%Goals 2.5Unter56%1.79
Ja 36% · Nein 64%Beide Teams treffenNein64%1.56
2.45 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
11.7 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapLechia Danzig winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Warschau win63%1.591.4562.1%+0.9 pp
Unentschieden21%4.764.3320.8%+0.2 pp
Lechia Danzig win16%6.255.2517.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Warschau1.92

Heim share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 44% · Unter 56%

Lechia Danzig0.53

Auswärts share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 36% · Nein 64%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Polonia Warschau

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Lechia Danzig

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
63%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
16%
10
Points from supplied form
4
1.92
Expected goals
0.53
Polonia WarschauLechia Danzig
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Warschau signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lechia Danzig signalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk37% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Polonia Warschau vs Lechia Danzig FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 63% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Warschau Gewinn 63%,Unentschieden 21%,Lechia Danzig Gewinn 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Über 2.5 44% · Current selection Unter