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BGR Bulgarien - 1. Liga · Spiel ·

Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.24 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg50%
Unentschieden28%
Auswärtssieg22%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Slavia SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
Expected goals2.24Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter61% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
50% / 28% / 22%SpielergebnisHeimsieg50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (22.1%)Doppelte Chance1X77.9%1.28
Über 39% · Unter 61%Goals 2.5Unter61%1.64
Ja 39% · Nein 61%Beide Teams treffenNein61%1.64
2.24 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.3 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.9%Largest probability gapSeptemvri Sofia winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Slavia Sofia win50%2.001.8349.7%+0.3 pp
Unentschieden28%3.573.3027.6%+0.4 pp
Septemvri Sofia win22%4.554.0022.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slavia Sofia1.56

Heim share of expected goals 69.6%

Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 39% · Unter 61%

Septemvri Sofia0.68

Auswärts share of expected goals 30.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 39% · Nein 61%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Slavia Sofia

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkte6

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
22%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.56
Expected goals
0.68
Slavia SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slavia Sofia signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Septemvri Sofia signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slavia Sofia Gewinn 50%,Unentschieden 28%,Septemvri Sofia Gewinn 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.24 · Über 2.5 39% · Current selection Unter