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BGR Bulgaria - Prima Liga · Meci ·

Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.24 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde50%
Egal28%
Victorie oaspeți22%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Slavia SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
Expected goals2.24Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub61% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
50% / 28% / 22%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (22.1%)Șansă dublă1X77.9%1.28
Peste 39% · Sub 61%Goals 2.5Sub61%1.64
Da 39% · Nu 61%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu61%1.64
2.24 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.9%Largest probability gapSeptemvri Sofia winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Slavia Sofia win50%2.001.8349.7%+0.3 pp
Egal28%3.573.3027.6%+0.4 pp
Septemvri Sofia win22%4.554.0022.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slavia Sofia1.56

Gazde share of expected goals 69.6%

Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 39% · Sub 61%

Septemvri Sofia0.68

Oaspeți share of expected goals 30.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 39% · Nu 61%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Slavia Sofia

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puncte6

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Câștig probability excluding draw
22%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.56
Expected goals
0.68
Slavia SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slavia Sofia signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Septemvri Sofia signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slavia Sofia câștig 50%,Egal 28%,Septemvri Sofia câștig 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.24 · Peste 2.5 39% · Current selection Sub