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BGR Bulgaria - Prima Liga · Meci ·

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.33 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde53%
Egal28%
Victorie oaspeți19%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde53% selection probability
Projected score2–1CSKA 1948 SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub59% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
53% / 28% / 19%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (19%)Șansă dublă1X81%1.23
Peste 41% · Sub 59%Goals 2.5Sub59%1.69
Da 39% · Nu 61%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu61%1.64
2.33 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
CSKA 1948 Sofia win53%1.89
Egal28%3.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win19%5.26

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.68

Gazde share of expected goals 72.1%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 41% · Sub 59%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.65

Oaspeți share of expected goals 27.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 39% · Nu 61%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puncte3

SignalOaspeți failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Câștig probability excluding draw
19%
8
Points from supplied form
3
1.68
Expected goals
0.65
CSKA 1948 SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CSKA 1948 Sofia signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalOaspeți failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CSKA 1948 Sofia câștig 53%,Egal 28%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv câștig 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · Peste 2.5 41% · Current selection Sub