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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.33 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa53%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite19%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa53% selection probability
Projected score2–1CSKA 1948 SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto59% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
53% / 28% / 19%Esito partitaVittoria casa53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (19%)Doppia Chance1X81%1.23
Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%Goals 2.5Sotto59%1.69
Sì 39% · No 61%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo61%1.64
2.33 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
CSKA 1948 Sofia win53%1.89
Pareggio28%3.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win19%5.26

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.68

Casa share of expected goals 72.1%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.65

Trasferta share of expected goals 27.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 39% · No 61%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punti8

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punti3

SignalTrasferta failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Vinta probability excluding draw
19%
8
Points from supplied form
3
1.68
Expected goals
0.65
CSKA 1948 SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CSKA 1948 Sofia signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalTrasferta failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CSKA 1948 Sofia vinta 53%,Pareggio 28%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv vinta 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · Sopra 2.5 41% · Current selection Sotto