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CHE Switzerland Super League · Spiel ·

FC Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–23.11 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg52%
Unentschieden23%
Auswärtssieg25%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg52% selection probability
Projected score1–2FC BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.11Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über60% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
52% / 23% / 25%SpielergebnisHeimsieg52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.2%)Doppelte Chance1276.8%1.30
Über 60% · Unter 40%Goals 2.5Über60%1.67
Ja 62% · Nein 38%Beide Teams treffenJa62%1.61
3.11 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–2
10.7 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapFC Basel winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Basel win52%1.921.7553.6%-1.6 pp
Unentschieden23%4.354.1022.9%+0.1 pp
FC Thun win25%4.004.0023.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Basel1.39

Heim share of expected goals 44.7%

Total expected goals3.11Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 60% · Unter 40%

FC Thun1.72

Auswärts share of expected goals 55.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 62% · Nein 38%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Basel

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
25%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.39
Expected goals
1.72
FC BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Basel signalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

FC Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Basel Gewinn 52%,Unentschieden 23%,FC Thun Gewinn 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Über 2.5 60% · Current selection Über