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CHE Switzerland Super League · Kamp ·

Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–23.11 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier52%
Uavgjort23%
Borteseier25%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier52% selection probability
Projected score1–2BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.11Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
52% / 23% / 25%KampresultatHjemmeseier52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.2%)Dobbel sjanse1276.8%1.30
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Ja 62% · Nei 38%Begge lag scorerJa62%1.61
3.11 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapBasel winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Basel win52%1.921.7553.6%-1.6 pp
Uavgjort23%4.354.1022.9%+0.1 pp
FC Thun win25%4.004.0023.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Basel1.39

Hjemme share of expected goals 44.7%

Total expected goals3.11Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

FC Thun1.72

Borte share of expected goals 55.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 62% · Nei 38%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Basel

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poeng8

SignalBorte unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
25%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.39
Expected goals
1.72
BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Basel signalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalBorte unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Basel vunnet 52%,Uavgjort 23%,FC Thun vunnet 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over