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CHE Switzerland Super League · Meci ·

Basel vs FC Thun

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–23.11 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde52%
Egal23%
Victorie oaspeți25%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde52% selection probability
Projected score1–2BaselFC Thun
Expected goals3.11Deschide match profile
Goals 2.5Peste60% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa62% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
52% / 23% / 25%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.2%)Șansă dublă1276.8%1.30
Peste 60% · Sub 40%Goals 2.5Peste60%1.67
Da 62% · Nu 38%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa62%1.61
3.11 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
10.7 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapBasel winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Basel win52%1.921.7553.6%-1.6 pp
Egal23%4.354.1022.9%+0.1 pp
FC Thun win25%4.004.0023.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Basel1.39

Gazde share of expected goals 44.7%

Total expected goals3.11Deschide

Dedicated goals model: Peste 60% · Sub 40%

FC Thun1.72

Oaspeți share of expected goals 55.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 62% · Nu 38%Match profileDeschide
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Basel

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde clean sheets: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

FC Thun

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Câștig probability excluding draw
25%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.39
Expected goals
1.72
BaselFC Thun
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Basel signalGazde clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Thun signalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Basel vs FC Thun FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Basel câștig 52%,Egal 23%,FC Thun câștig 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Peste 2.5 60% · Current selection Peste