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NLD Nederländerna - Eerste Divisie · Match ·

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–22.94 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger27%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger46%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger46% selection probability
Projected score1–2Helmond SportDe Graafschap
Expected goals2.94Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över56% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
27% / 27% / 46%MatchresultatBortaseger46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Dubbelchans1272.9%1.37
Över 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Över56%1.79
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Båda lagen gör målJa57%1.75
2.94 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.7 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Helmond Sport win27%3.70
Oavgjort27%3.70
De Graafschap win46%2.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Helmond Sport1.16

Hemma share of expected goals 39.5%

Total expected goals2.94Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 56% · Under 44%

De Graafschap1.78

Borta share of expected goals 60.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Helmond Sport

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

De Graafschap

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
46%
4
Points from supplied form
7
1.16
Expected goals
1.78
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Helmond Sport signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02De Graafschap signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–2 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Helmond Sport vunnen 27%,Oavgjort 27%,De Graafschap vunnen 46%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.94 · Över 2.5 56% · Current selection Över