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JPN Japan - J3-League · Round 1 ·

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.65 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger52%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger24%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Expected goals3.65Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över71% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
52% / 25% / 24%MatchresultatHemmaseger52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thespa Gunma win (23.6%)Dubbelchans1X76.4%1.31
Över 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Över71%1.41
Ja 68% · Nej 32%Båda lagen gör målJa68%1.47
3.65 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.2 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapKagoshima United winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Kagoshima United win52%1.921.7551.4%+0.6 pp
Oavgjort25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Thespa Gunma win24%4.173.8023.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kagoshima United2.25

Hemma share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.65Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 71% · Under 29%

Thespa Gunma1.40

Borta share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 68% · Nej 32%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Kagoshima United

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Thespa Gunma

3.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poäng15

SignalHemma failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
24%
2
Points from supplied form
15
2.25
Expected goals
1.40
Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kagoshima United signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thespa Gunma signalHemma failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kagoshima United vunnen 52%,Oavgjort 25%,Thespa Gunma vunnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · Över 2.5 71% · Current selection Över