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JPN Japan - J3-League · Round 1 ·

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–13.65 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg52%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg24%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Expected goals3.65Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über71% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
52% / 25% / 24%SpielergebnisHeimsieg52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thespa Gunma win (23.6%)Doppelte Chance1X76.4%1.31
Über 71% · Unter 29%Goals 2.5Über71%1.41
Ja 68% · Nein 32%Beide Teams treffenJa68%1.47
3.65 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.2 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapKagoshima United winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Kagoshima United win52%1.921.7551.4%+0.6 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Thespa Gunma win24%4.173.8023.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kagoshima United2.25

Heim share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.65Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 71% · Unter 29%

Thespa Gunma1.40

Auswärts share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 68% · Nein 32%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Kagoshima United

0.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punkte2

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Thespa Gunma

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalHeim failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
24%
2
Points from supplied form
15
2.25
Expected goals
1.40
Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kagoshima United signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thespa Gunma signalHeim failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kagoshima United Gewinn 52%,Unentschieden 25%,Thespa Gunma Gewinn 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · Über 2.5 71% · Current selection Über