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JPN 日本J3聯賽 · Round 1 ·

鹿兒島聯 vs Thespa Gunma

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

主隊 form
Projected score2–13.65 expected goals
客隊 form
主勝52%
25%
客勝24%
Full model forecast主勝Tier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary call主勝52% selection probability
Projected score2–1鹿兒島聯Thespa Gunma
Expected goals3.65初盤 match profile
Goals 2.571% for the selected side
雙方進球68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2大 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market投注機率公平賠率
52% / 25% / 24%比賽結果主勝52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thespa Gunma win (23.6%)雙重機會1X76.4%1.31
大 71% · 小 29%Goals 2.571%1.41
是 68% · 否 32%雙方進球68%1.47
3.65 total expected goals正確比分2–1
10.2 expected match corners角球大 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gap鹿兒島聯 winDifference+0.6 pp
Outcome預測公平賠率Reference oddsNormalized marketDifference
鹿兒島聯 win52%1.921.7551.4%+0.6 pp
25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Thespa Gunma win24%4.173.8023.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

鹿兒島聯2.25

主隊 share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.65初盤

Dedicated goals model: 71% · 29%

Thespa Gunma1.40

客隊 share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 68% · 32%Match profile初盤
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

主隊-context · form sequence

鹿兒島聯

0.40pts / match
5Wins0Drawn2Losses3積分2

Signal主隊 matches under 2.5: 4/5

客隊-context · form sequence

Thespa Gunma

3.00pts / match
5Wins5Drawn0Losses0積分15

Signal主隊 failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
贏 probability excluding draw
24%
2
Points from supplied form
15
2.25
Expected goals
1.40
鹿兒島聯Thespa Gunma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01鹿兒島聯 signal主隊 matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thespa Gunma signal主隊 failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 平 probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

鹿兒島聯 vs Thespa Gunma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: 主勝 · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

鹿兒島聯 52%, 25%,Thespa Gunma 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · 大2.5 71% · Current selection