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NLD Nederländerna - Eerste Divisie · Match ·

FC Dordrecht vs Ajax reserver

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger57%
Oavgjort22%
Bortaseger21%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger57% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC DordrechtAjax reserver
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över52% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
57% / 22% / 21%MatchresultatHemmaseger57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ajax reserver win (21%)Dubbelchans1X79%1.27
Över 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Över52%1.92
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Båda lagen gör målJa55%1.82
2.77 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.4 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.8%Largest probability gapFC Dordrecht winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Dordrecht win57%1.751.6058%-1.0 pp
Oavgjort22%4.554.3321.4%+0.6 pp
Ajax reserver win21%4.764.5020.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Dordrecht1.64

Hemma share of expected goals 59.2%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 52% · Under 48%

Ajax reserver1.13

Borta share of expected goals 40.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FC Dordrecht

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalHemma won 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Ajax reserver

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
21%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.64
Expected goals
1.13
FC DordrechtAjax reserver
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Dordrecht signalHemma won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ajax reserver signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

FC Dordrecht vs Ajax reserver FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Dordrecht vunnen 57%,Oavgjort 22%,Ajax reserver vunnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Över 2.5 52% · Current selection Över