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INT Portugal Liga 3 · Final ·

Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon

Prediction review

Domáci form
Final score0–3Predpoveď 1–1
Hostia form
Výhra domácich26%
Remíza34%
Výhra hostí40%
Full model forecastVýhra hostíTier A · 40% selection probability
Prediction Úspešná
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra hostí40% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaAtletico CP Lisbon
Expected goals1.79Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menej73% for the selected side
Oba tímy skórujúNie66% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Viac 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýberPravdepodobnosťFérový kurz
26% / 34% / 40%Výsledok zápasuVýhra hostí40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sporting Covilha win (26.2%)Dvojitá šancaX273.8%1.36
Viac 27% · Menej 73%Goals 2.5Menej73%1.37
Áno 34% · Nie 66%Oba tímy skórujúNie66%1.52
1.79 total expected goalsPresné skóre1–1
10.1 expected match cornersRohyViac 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFérový kurz
Sporting Covilha win26%3.85
Remíza34%2.94
Atletico CP Lisbon win40%2.50

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.71

Domáci share of expected goals 39.7%

Total expected goals1.79Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Viac 27% · Menej 73%

Atletico CP Lisbon1.08

Hostia share of expected goals 60.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitÁno 34% · Nie 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domáci-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.20pts / match
Odohrané5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Body6

SignalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

Hostia-context · form sequence

Atletico CP Lisbon

1.40pts / match
Odohrané5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Body7

SignalDomáci matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Výhra probability excluding draw
40%
6
Points from supplied form
7
0.71
Expected goals
1.08
Sporting CovilhaAtletico CP Lisbon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalDomáci unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Atletico CP Lisbon signalDomáci matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra hostí · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha výhra 26%,Remíza 34%,Atletico CP Lisbon výhra 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.79 · Viac 2.5 27% · Current selection Menej