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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Спартак Варна vs Септември София

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев46%
Ничья28%
Победа гостей26%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Спартак ВарнаСептември София
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Больше51% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
46% / 28% / 26%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Септември София win (26.4%)Двойной шанс1X73.6%1.36
Больше 51% · Меньше 49%Goals 2.5Больше51%1.96
Да 53% · Нет 47%Обе забьютДа53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
8.8 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Спартак Варна win46%2.17
Ничья28%3.57
Септември София win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Спартак Варна1.68

Хозяева share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 51% · Меньше 49%

Септември София1.05

Гости share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 53% · Нет 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Спартак Варна

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Септември София

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
26%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
1.05
Спартак ВарнаСептември София
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Спартак Варна signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Септември София signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Спартак Варна vs Септември София FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Спартак Варна выигрыш 46%,Ничья 28%,Септември София выигрыш 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · ТБ 2.5 51% · Current selection Больше